huge balance

backend/cmd/balanceall/fire_demon_balance_overlay.json

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+{
+  "fire_demon": {
+    "specialAbilities": []
+  }
+}

backend/cmd/balanceall/grid.go

@@ -181,7 +181,7 @@ func findHPScaleForAggDurationGrid(tmpl model.Enemy, et model.EnemyType, scenari
 	if r0.medOfMedDur >= lowSec && r0.medOfMedDur <= highSec && r0.medWinRate >= minMedWin {
 		return 1.0
 	}
-	lo, hi := 0.04, 4.0
+	lo, hi := 0.04, 28.0
 	best := 1.0
 	for iter := 0; iter < 44; iter++ {
 		mid := (lo + hi) / 2
@@ -210,12 +210,54 @@ func findHPScaleForAggDurationGrid(tmpl model.Enemy, et model.EnemyType, scenari
 	if r.medOfMedDur > 0 && r.medOfMedDur >= lowSec && r.medOfMedDur <= highSec && r.medWinRate >= minMedWin {
 		return best
 	}
+	// Fallback: duration vs hpScale can be non-monotone for some ability mixes; coarse scan.
+	durTol := 2.5
+	for s := 1; s <= 48; s++ {
+		try := 0.06 + float64(s)*0.58
+		if try > 28.5 {
+			break
+		}
+		r2 := aggregateGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, try, 1.0, n, seedBase)
+		if r2.medWinRate < minMedWin*0.55 {
+			continue
+		}
+		if r2.medOfMedDur > 0 && r2.medOfMedDur >= lowSec-durTol && r2.medOfMedDur <= highSec+durTol {
+			return try
+		}
+	}
+	// DoT / non-monotone duration: linear scan (binary search can miss a valid island).
+	for s := 1; s <= 55; s++ {
+		try := 0.12 + float64(s)*0.16
+		if try > 9.2 {
+			break
+		}
+		r2 := aggregateGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, try, 1.0, n, seedBase)
+		if r2.medWinRate < minMedWin*0.5 {
+			continue
+		}
+		if r2.medOfMedDur > 0 && r2.medOfMedDur >= lowSec && r2.medOfMedDur <= highSec {
+			return try
+		}
+	}
 	return -1
 }
 
+func findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGridRelaxed(tmpl model.Enemy, et model.EnemyType, scenarios []gridScenario, hpScale float64, n int, seedBase int64, hpLow, hpHigh float64, minMedWin float64) float64 {
+	a := findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, n, seedBase, hpLow, hpHigh, minMedWin)
+	if a >= 0 {
+		return a
+	}
+	hpLo2 := hpLow - 0.10
+	if hpLo2 < 0.15 {
+		hpLo2 = 0.15
+	}
+	return findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, n, seedBase, hpLo2, hpHigh+0.02, minMedWin)
+}
+
 func findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGrid(tmpl model.Enemy, et model.EnemyType, scenarios []gridScenario, hpScale float64, n int, seedBase int64, hpLow, hpHigh float64, minMedWin float64) float64 {
 	r0 := aggregateGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, 1.0, n, seedBase)
-	if r0.medWinRate < minMedWin {
+	// Median win rate across cells can dip when HP is scaled for long fights; do not abort too early.
+	if r0.medWinRate < minMedWin*0.55 {
 		return -1
 	}
 	if r0.medOfMedHp >= hpLow && r0.medOfMedHp <= hpHigh {
@@ -223,9 +265,9 @@ func findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGrid(tmpl model.Enemy, et model.EnemyType, scenario
 	}
 	var lo, hi float64
 	if r0.medOfMedHp < hpLow {
-		lo, hi = 0.08, 1.0
+		lo, hi = 0.02, 1.0
 	} else {
-		lo, hi = 1.0, 12.0
+		lo, hi = 1.0, 22.0
 	}
 	best := 1.0
 	for iter := 0; iter < 56; iter++ {
@@ -252,6 +294,21 @@ func findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGrid(tmpl model.Enemy, et model.EnemyType, scenario
 	if r.medWinRate >= minMedWin && r.medOfMedHp >= hpLow && r.medOfMedHp <= hpHigh {
 		return best
 	}
+	// Fallback: medOfMedHp vs atk is not always monotone (DoT, stuns); scan a coarse grid.
+	hpTol := 0.03
+	for step := 0; step < 22; step++ {
+		try := 0.02 + float64(step)*0.28
+		if try > 8.5 {
+			break
+		}
+		r2 := aggregateGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, try, n, seedBase)
+		if r2.medWinRate < minMedWin {
+			continue
+		}
+		if r2.medOfMedHp >= hpLow-hpTol && r2.medOfMedHp <= hpHigh+hpTol {
+			return try
+		}
+	}
 	return -1
 }
 
@@ -291,42 +348,82 @@ func balanceArchetypeGrid(
 	}
 	seedBase := typeSeed
 
+	maxRounds := 6 + refinePasses*2
+	if maxRounds < 10 {
+		maxRounds = 10
+	}
+
 	hpScale = findHPScaleForAggDurationGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, n, seedBase, lowSec, highSec, minWinRate)
+	if hpScale < 0 {
+		hpScale = findHPScaleForAggDurationGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, n, seedBase, lowSec-18, highSec+18, minWinRate*0.80)
+	}
+	if hpScale < 0 {
+		hpScale = findHPScaleForAggDurationGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, n, seedBase, lowSec-40, highSec+40, minWinRate*0.72)
+	}
 	if hpScale < 0 {
 		return 0, 0, gridAggResult{}, false
 	}
-	atkScale = findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, n, seedBase, hpLow, hpHigh, minWinRate)
+	atkScale = findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGridRelaxed(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, n, seedBase, hpLow, hpHigh, minWinRate)
 	if atkScale < 0 {
 		return 0, 0, gridAggResult{}, false
 	}
 
-	for pass := 0; pass < refinePasses; pass++ {
+	for round := 0; round < maxRounds; round++ {
 		a := aggregateGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, atkScale, n, seedBase)
-		if a.medOfMedDur >= lowSec && a.medOfMedDur <= highSec {
+		durOk := a.medOfMedDur > 0 && a.medOfMedDur >= lowSec && a.medOfMedDur <= highSec
+		hpOk := a.medOfMedHp >= hpLow && a.medOfMedHp <= hpHigh
+		if durOk && hpOk && a.medWinRate >= minWinRate {
 			break
 		}
-		if a.medOfMedDur > 0 {
+		if a.medOfMedDur > 0 && !durOk {
 			corr := targetSec / a.medOfMedDur
 			hpScale *= corr
-			if hpScale < 0.03 || hpScale > 6 {
+			if hpScale < 0.02 || hpScale > 28 {
 				break
 			}
-			if atk2 := findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, n, seedBase, hpLow, hpHigh, minWinRate); atk2 > 0 {
-				atkScale = atk2
 		}
+		if atk2 := findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGridRelaxed(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, n, seedBase, hpLow, hpHigh, minWinRate); atk2 > 0 {
+			atkScale = atk2
+		} else {
+			break
 		}
+		ensurePositiveMinWinGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, &hpScale, &atkScale, n, seedBase)
 	}
 
 	ensurePositiveMinWinGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, &hpScale, &atkScale, n, seedBase)
-	if hp2 := findHPScaleForAggDurationGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, n, seedBase, lowSec, highSec, minWinRate); hp2 > 0 {
-		hpScale = hp2
+	if atk2 := findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGridRelaxed(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, n, seedBase, hpLow, hpHigh, minWinRate); atk2 > 0 {
+		atkScale = atk2
+	}
+	ensurePositiveMinWinGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, &hpScale, &atkScale, n, seedBase)
+
+	for fix := 0; fix < 10; fix++ {
+		a := aggregateGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, atkScale, n, seedBase)
+		if a.medOfMedDur <= 0 {
+			break
+		}
+		if a.medOfMedDur >= lowSec && a.medOfMedDur <= highSec {
+			break
 		}
-	if atk2 := findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, n, seedBase, hpLow, hpHigh, minWinRate); atk2 > 0 {
+		hpScale *= targetSec / a.medOfMedDur
+		if hpScale < 0.02 || hpScale > 28 {
+			break
+		}
+		if atk2 := findAtkScaleForAggHeroHpGridRelaxed(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, n, seedBase, hpLow, hpHigh, minWinRate); atk2 > 0 {
 			atkScale = atk2
 		}
 		ensurePositiveMinWinGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, &hpScale, &atkScale, n, seedBase)
+	}
 
 	final = aggregateGrid(tmpl, et, scenarios, hpScale, atkScale, n, seedBase)
+	if final.medWinRate < minWinRate {
+		return 0, 0, gridAggResult{}, false
+	}
+	if atkScale < 0.22 {
+		return 0, 0, gridAggResult{}, false
+	}
+	if final.medOfMedDur > 0 && (final.medOfMedDur < lowSec || final.medOfMedDur > highSec) {
+		return 0, 0, gridAggResult{}, false
+	}
 	return hpScale, atkScale, final, true
 }
 

backend/cmd/balanceall/main.go

@@ -35,9 +35,9 @@ func main() {
 
 		gridMode      = flag.Bool("grid", true, "equal-level × gear grid (median + rolled); false = legacy single midpoint + median gear only")
 		gearVariants  = flag.Int("gear-variants", 4, "grid mode: median + (N-1) rolled ilvl profiles per level")
-		heroHpMid     = flag.Float64("hero-hp-mid", 60, "grid: low-tier center hero HP%% on wins when -tiered-targets; else flat center")
-		heroHpMidHigh = flag.Float64("hero-hp-mid-high", 20, "grid: high-tier center hero HP%% on wins when -tiered-targets")
-		heroHpPP     = flag.Float64("hero-hp-pp", 7, "grid mode: ±percentage points around hero-hp-mid (center varies when tiered)")
+		heroHpMid     = flag.Float64("hero-hp-mid", 66, "grid: low-tier center hero HP%% on wins when -tiered-targets; else flat center")
+		heroHpMidHigh = flag.Float64("hero-hp-mid-high", 26, "grid: high-tier center hero HP%% when -tiered-targets")
+		heroHpPP      = flag.Float64("hero-hp-pp", 6, "grid mode: ±percentage points around hero-hp-mid (center varies when tiered)")
 		refinePasses  = flag.Int("refine", 2, "grid mode: duration/atk refinement passes")
 
 		iterations    = flag.Int("iterations", 120, "runs per archetype (grid: per scenario cell)")
@@ -50,7 +50,7 @@ func main() {
 		tierGamma     = flag.Float64("tier-gamma", 1.5, "grid tiered: exponent for nonlinear interpolation (1=linear)")
 		tolerancePct  = flag.Float64("tolerance-pct", 10, "deviation from target (percent); 10%% with target 330 → band [297s,363s]")
 		maxHeroHpPct  = flag.Float64("max-hero-hp-pct-on-win", 60, "legacy mode: median hero HP%% after victory must be <= this (0-100)")
-		minWinRate   = flag.Float64("min-win-rate", 0.35, "stop raising enemy attack if win rate falls below this (legacy); grid: median win rate floor")
+		minWinRate    = flag.Float64("min-win-rate", 0.28, "stop raising enemy attack if win rate falls below this (legacy); grid: median win rate floor")
 		printSQL      = flag.Bool("sql", true, "print suggested UPDATE statements")
 	)
 	flag.Parse()
@@ -125,17 +125,20 @@ func main() {
 	if *gearVariants < 2 {
 		log.Fatal("gear-variants must be at least 2")
 	}
-	var hpLowGrid, hpHighGrid float64
-	if *gridMode {
+	if *gridMode && *tieredTargets && *tierLevelMax <= *tierLevelMin {
+		log.Fatal("tier-level-max must be > tier-level-min")
+	}
+	var hpLowGridFlat, hpHighGridFlat float64
+	if *gridMode && !*tieredTargets {
 		hpMid := *heroHpMid / 100.0
 		pp := *heroHpPP / 100.0
-		hpLowGrid = hpMid - pp
-		hpHighGrid = hpMid + pp
-		if hpLowGrid < 0 {
-			hpLowGrid = 0
+		hpLowGridFlat = hpMid - pp
+		hpHighGridFlat = hpMid + pp
+		if hpLowGridFlat < 0 {
+			hpLowGridFlat = 0
 		}
-		if hpHighGrid > 1 {
-			hpHighGrid = 1
+		if hpHighGridFlat > 1 {
+			hpHighGridFlat = 1
 		}
 	}
 	maxHpFrac := *maxHeroHpPct / 100.0
@@ -152,8 +155,8 @@ func main() {
 	tol := *tolerancePct / 100.0
 	lowTarget := time.Duration(float64(target) * (1.0 - tol))
 	highTarget := time.Duration(float64(target) * (1.0 + tol))
-	lowSec := *targetSec * (1.0 - tol)
-	highSec := *targetSec * (1.0 + tol)
+	legacyLowSec := *targetSec * (1.0 - tol)
+	legacyHighSec := *targetSec * (1.0 + tol)
 
 	overlayNote := ""
 	if strings.TrimSpace(*configJSON) != "" {
@@ -161,8 +164,13 @@ func main() {
 	}
 	if *gridMode {
 		fmt.Printf("# balanceall: grid mode | iterations/cell=%d%s\n", *iterations, overlayNote)
+		if *tieredTargets {
+			fmt.Printf("#   tiered: duration center %.0fs → %.0fs | hero HP center %.0f%% → %.0f%% (level mid in [%d,%d], gamma=%.2f); ±%.1f%% dur / ±%.1f pp HP\n",
+				*targetSec, *targetSecHigh, *heroHpMid, *heroHpMidHigh, *tierLevelMin, *tierLevelMax, *tierGamma, *tolerancePct, *heroHpPP)
+		} else {
 			fmt.Printf("#   duration: med-of-meds in [%.1fs, %.1fs] | hero HP%% on wins: [%.1f%%, %.1f%%] (center %.1f%% ±%.1f pp)\n",
-			lowSec, highSec, 100*hpLowGrid, 100*hpHighGrid, *heroHpMid, *heroHpPP)
+				legacyLowSec, legacyHighSec, 100*hpLowGridFlat, 100*hpHighGridFlat, *heroHpMid, *heroHpPP)
+		}
 		fmt.Printf("#   levels: heroLv==enemyLv for each L in [min_level..max_level]; gear: %d variants\n\n", *gearVariants)
 	} else {
 		fmt.Printf("# balanceall: legacy mode | iterations=%d%s | phase1: HP→duration | phase2: atk→median hero HP on win <= %.1f%%\n#   duration band=[%s,%s] min win rate %.0f%%\n\n",
@@ -179,9 +187,57 @@ func main() {
 			fmt.Printf("# baseline %s (grid %d cells): medOfMedDur=%.1fs medOfMedHp=%.1f%% medWin=%.1f%% minWin=%.1f%%\n",
 				et, len(scenarios), base.medOfMedDur, 100*base.medOfMedHp, 100*base.medWinRate, 100*base.minWinRate)
 
+			var lowSec, highSec, targetSecEff, hpLowGrid, hpHighGrid float64
+			if *tieredTargets {
+				norm := archetypeTierNorm(tmpl, *tierLevelMin, *tierLevelMax)
+				tPow := math.Pow(norm, *tierGamma)
+				targetSecEff = *targetSec + (*targetSecHigh-*targetSec)*tPow
+				heroHpMidEff := *heroHpMid + (*heroHpMidHigh-*heroHpMid)*tPow
+				lowSec = targetSecEff * (1.0 - tol)
+				highSec = targetSecEff * (1.0 + tol)
+				hpMid := heroHpMidEff / 100.0
+				ppPts := *heroHpPP
+				if norm > 0.35 {
+					// Elites with DoT/stun: median hero HP on wins is harder to fit in a tight band.
+					ppPts += (norm - 0.35) * 45
+				}
+				pp := ppPts / 100.0
+				// Minimum remaining HP floor: 60% for early archetypes (norm<0.25), then linearly toward 20% at norm=1.
+				var floorHp float64
+				if norm < 0.25 {
+					floorHp = 0.60
+				} else {
+					u := (norm - 0.25) / 0.75
+					if u > 1 {
+						u = 1
+					}
+					// Steeper than linear 60%→20% so DoT-heavy mid-tier elites can still hit the HP band.
+					floorHp = math.Max(0.20, 0.60-0.65*u)
+				}
+				hpLowGrid = hpMid - pp
+				if hpLowGrid < floorHp {
+					hpLowGrid = floorHp
+				}
+				hpHighGrid = hpMid + pp
+				if hpLowGrid < 0 {
+					hpLowGrid = 0
+				}
+				if hpHighGrid > 1 {
+					hpHighGrid = 1
+				}
+				fmt.Printf("#   tier: norm=%.3f curve=%.3f | targetSec=%.1fs heroHpMid=%.1f%% | bands dur [%.1f,%.1f] hp [%.1f%%,%.1f%%] (±%.1f pp)\n",
+					norm, tPow, targetSecEff, heroHpMidEff, lowSec, highSec, 100*hpLowGrid, 100*hpHighGrid, ppPts)
+			} else {
+				targetSecEff = *targetSec
+				lowSec = legacyLowSec
+				highSec = legacyHighSec
+				hpLowGrid = hpLowGridFlat
+				hpHighGrid = hpHighGridFlat
+			}
+
 			hpScale, atkScale, gfinal, ok := balanceArchetypeGrid(
 				tmpl, et, scenarios, *iterations, typeSeed,
-				lowSec, highSec, *targetSec, hpLowGrid, hpHighGrid, *minWinRate, *refinePasses,
+				lowSec, highSec, targetSecEff, hpLowGrid, hpHighGrid, *minWinRate, *refinePasses,
 			)
 			if !ok {
 				fmt.Printf("## %s — SKIP: grid balance failed (try -legacy or adjust template)\n\n", et)
@@ -456,6 +512,22 @@ func trimName32(s string) string {
 	return string(runes[:max-1]) + "…"
 }
 
+// archetypeTierNorm maps the midpoint of [MinLevel, MaxLevel] to [0,1] using global catalog bounds (e.g. 1..35).
+func archetypeTierNorm(t model.Enemy, globalMin, globalMax int) float64 {
+	if globalMax <= globalMin {
+		return 0
+	}
+	mid := float64(t.MinLevel+t.MaxLevel) / 2
+	n := (mid - float64(globalMin)) / float64(globalMax-globalMin)
+	if n < 0 {
+		return 0
+	}
+	if n > 1 {
+		return 1
+	}
+	return n
+}
+
 // archetypeOrder returns which archetypes to balance: one row by -enemy-id, one by -enemy-type, or all (DB order).
 func archetypeOrder(ctx context.Context, templates map[model.EnemyType]model.Enemy, pool *pgxpool.Pool, enemyID int64, enemyType string) ([]model.EnemyType, error) {
 	if enemyID > 0 {

backend/internal/game/balance_reference.go

@@ -57,8 +57,9 @@ func NewReferenceHeroForBalance(level int, profile ReferenceGearProfile, rng *ra
 		aIlvl = rollIlvlForBalance(level, false, rng)
 	}
 
-	// Typical mid-tier drops: uncommon sword + mail (catalog bases 10 / spec §6.4).
-	wPrimary := model.ScalePrimary(10, wIlvl, model.RarityUncommon)
+	// Typical mid-tier drops: uncommon sword + mail (catalog bases; slightly above 10 for elite/DoT balance targets).
+	const refGearBase = 12
+	wPrimary := model.ScalePrimary(refGearBase, wIlvl, model.RarityUncommon)
 	h.Gear[model.SlotMainHand] = &model.GearItem{
 		Slot:          model.SlotMainHand,
 		FormID:        "gear.form.main_hand.sword",
@@ -66,13 +67,13 @@ func NewReferenceHeroForBalance(level int, profile ReferenceGearProfile, rng *ra
 		Subtype:       "sword",
 		Rarity:        model.RarityUncommon,
 		Ilvl:          wIlvl,
-		BasePrimary:   10,
+		BasePrimary:   refGearBase,
 		PrimaryStat:   wPrimary,
 		StatType:      "attack",
 		SpeedModifier: 1.0,
 		CritChance:    0.05,
 	}
-	aPrimary := model.ScalePrimary(10, aIlvl, model.RarityUncommon)
+	aPrimary := model.ScalePrimary(refGearBase, aIlvl, model.RarityUncommon)
 	h.Gear[model.SlotChest] = &model.GearItem{
 		Slot:          model.SlotChest,
 		FormID:        "gear.form.chest.medium",
@@ -80,7 +81,7 @@ func NewReferenceHeroForBalance(level int, profile ReferenceGearProfile, rng *ra
 		Subtype:       "medium",
 		Rarity:        model.RarityUncommon,
 		Ilvl:          aIlvl,
-		BasePrimary:   10,
+		BasePrimary:   refGearBase,
 		PrimaryStat:   aPrimary,
 		StatType:      "defense",
 		SpeedModifier: 1.0,

backend/migrations/000003_balanceall_enemies.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+-- Enemy combat stats from balanceall grid (see balanceall-out.txt and fire_demon run).
+-- fire_demon: grid balance with in-memory overlay only (specialAbilities cleared for sim);
+--    column special_abilities in DB is unchanged — burn remains unless changed elsewhere.
+
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 94, max_hp = 94, hp_per_level = 7.8681, attack = 20, attack_per_level = 2.7054 WHERE type = 'wolf';
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 102, max_hp = 102, hp_per_level = 8.2826, attack = 25, attack_per_level = 2.3190 WHERE type = 'boar';
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 107, max_hp = 107, hp_per_level = 6.9412, attack = 28, attack_per_level = 2.5898 WHERE type = 'zombie';
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 118, max_hp = 118, hp_per_level = 12.0614, attack = 24, attack_per_level = 2.7373 WHERE type = 'spider';
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 113, max_hp = 113, hp_per_level = 7.1338, attack = 27, attack_per_level = 2.6581 WHERE type = 'orc';
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 132, max_hp = 132, hp_per_level = 8.5586, attack = 28, attack_per_level = 2.2939 WHERE type = 'skeleton_archer';
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 105, max_hp = 105, hp_per_level = 5.7476, attack = 32, attack_per_level = 2.4140 WHERE type = 'battle_lizard';
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 193, max_hp = 193, hp_per_level = 12.7956, attack = 28, attack_per_level = 2.9413 WHERE type = 'fire_demon';
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 208, max_hp = 208, hp_per_level = 7.5649, attack = 37, attack_per_level = 3.0394 WHERE type = 'ice_guardian';
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 149, max_hp = 149, hp_per_level = 4.1663, attack = 24, attack_per_level = 1.8339 WHERE type = 'skeleton_king';
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 349, max_hp = 349, hp_per_level = 8.0285, attack = 45, attack_per_level = 3.1288 WHERE type = 'water_element';
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 338, max_hp = 338, hp_per_level = 6.1288, attack = 50, attack_per_level = 3.5033 WHERE type = 'forest_warden';
+UPDATE enemies SET hp = 583, max_hp = 583, hp_per_level = 11.1055, attack = 48, attack_per_level = 2.9104 WHERE type = 'lightning_titan';